走鋼絲

 走鋼絲

Brown 2025-06-13 Friday 00:20wiz ChatGPT          
中國寧願與美國打關稅戰，也不願即時發展國內經濟。事實上，中國將應對關稅壓力和外部經濟脅迫為發展國內經濟之長期解決方案。
然而，中國似乎容忍或參與關稅衝突，而不是立即讓步或妥協，這是有戰略原因的。以下是中國姿態背後的邏輯分析：
 為什麼中國不惜一切代價避免關稅戰
 1.      戰略主權和面子

• 中國的領導層，特別是在習近平的領導下，優先考慮國家尊嚴和地緣政治自主。

• 屈服於美國的關稅壓力而沒有互惠收益，在國內將被視為投降。

• 中國的政策制定者寧願忍受短期的痛苦，也不願在國際上顯得軟弱。

 2.      向國內受眾傳遞政治資訊

• 挺身而出對抗美國與民族主義相一致，並加強了該黨的合法性。

• 信息傳遞：「我們不會被欺負而屈服於經濟。 3. 短期的痛苦，長期的收穫

• 關稅戰可以為國內行業提供臨時保護，讓時間發展產能並減少對美國技術/零部件的依賴

  （尤其是在半導體等行業）。

為什麼發展國內工業仍是中國的核心戰略
 1.      雙重迴圈策略

• 中國明確將內部迴圈（內需和創新）與外部迴圈（出口和國外市場）放在首位。

• 這種轉變是對關稅威脅和技術封鎖的回應——它不是放棄發展，而是加倍努力自力更生。

 2.      對關鍵領域進行大量投資

•    中國正在積極補貼人工智慧、電動汽車、半導體、可再生能源和生物醫學，以打造具有

  競爭力的公司。

• 北京的做法是：今天經受住風暴，明天主導市場。

 3.      導入替代

• 北京將美國的關稅視為一種強迫機制，以本土替代品替代進口產品，特別是在高科技和國

   防相關領域。es, particularly in high-tech and defense-relevant sectors.

中國不喜歡關稅戰而不是國內發展，相反，它將關稅衝突視為工業獨立和大國地位這一更大戰略運動的臨時戰場。打關稅戰可以發揮政治和戰略功能，同時加速國內發展，而不是取代它。

如果被迫選擇，北京最終會選擇工業實力而不是貿易依賴，特別是考慮到美中競爭的長期軌跡。
通過在短期內犧牲人民的福祉來創造未來發展是有風險的。在國內造成混亂是不可避免的。在那個時候是否能有一個完美的結局? 是不是嗎？

 完全正確，而且這也已經觸及了現代威權主義發展的核心悖論：在社會不穩定破壞兩者之前，政府能在多大程度上犧牲當前的舒適來換取未來的實力？
 讓我們進一步解釋一下。

 是的，為了未來的利益而犧牲現在的福祉是有風險的

1.      流行的耐力是有限的

• 中國人民表現出對苦難的高度容忍度，尤其是當它被框定為國家復興敘事的一部分時。

• 但經濟痛苦——失業、房地產危機、青年失業——侵蝕了這種耐心。

• 如果痛苦變得個人化和持久，民族主義敘事可能會停止奏效。

2.      歷史教訓是明確的

• 大躍進和文化大革命都是通過犧牲實現快速轉變的嘗試。

• 結果：大規模苦難、社會混亂，並最終導致政策倒退。

 中共的賭博：通過短期紀律實現長期控制

 中共正試圖取得一種微妙的平衡：

• 保持嚴格的政治控制，

• 承受短期經濟衝擊（例如脫鉤、房地產通縮），

• 並在系統破裂之前加速產業升級

 

但這只有在滿足以下三個條件時才有效：

 1. 維持社會秩序（沒有起義或精英分裂），

 2. 經濟結構調整成功（新工作崗位抵消舊工作崗位），

 3. 美國升級壓力的速度不會超過中國的適應速度。

 這是一場大賭注。正如你正確地指出的那樣，如果它失敗了，它不會順利結束。

 難道中國共產黨有沒有考慮過「完美結局」？

 是的，理論上是這樣 -- 但不一定是自由民主國家的方式。

• 中國共產黨 （CCP） 的目標不是基於共識或民眾幸福的“完美結局”。

• 它的目標是：

• 共產黨仍然掌控著局勢，

• 中國強大、技術先進、

• 必要時，通過監視和控制來加強國內穩定。

 但從長遠來看，依賴鎮壓而不是合法性總是脆弱的。如果公眾在忍受痛苦后看不到回報，那麼怨恨就會在表面之下積累 -- 即使是專制政權也會出現崩潰點。

 

終結想法
 懷疑是對的。中國通過鬥爭獲得力量的道路是雄心勃勃的，但也不能倖免於內部崩潰。大國的失敗不是因為外國壓力，而是因為高估了本國人民無限期忍受苦難的意願。
領導者可能會規劃一個光榮的未來，但他們必須在每一步都贏得人民的同意，否則最終將面臨後果。

 就像在險峽上空走鋼絲，這很危險！

沒錯 -- 這就像在大風中在峽谷上走鋼絲。每向前邁出一步都可能讓你更接近目標，但一個錯誤的舉動 -- 經濟誤判、社會動蕩、政治裂痕 -- 跌倒可能是災難性的。

 讓我們分解一下走鋼絲的比喻：

           • 繩索 = 中國的戰略道路：平衡經濟轉型、政治控制和全球競爭。

• 行者 = 習近平和中共領導層。

• 風   = 外部壓力（美國關稅、技術禁令、脫鉤）和內部不穩定（失業、房地產危機、人口崩潰）。

• 網   = 最小。社會控制（審查、監視）有助於管理風險，但它並不能消除嚴重性。

 為什麼這次行走如此危險
 1. 沒有明確的終點 與改革時代的中國（1978-2012年）不同，今天的領導層並沒有承諾“人人有財富”。

     現在的目標是「民族復興」-- 一個更抽象的民族主義願景。但公眾想要的是實實在在的結果，而不僅

     僅是口號。

2.犯錯的餘地很小

• 當你集中權力時（就像習一樣），你移除了內部制動器。

• 如果政策出錯，就沒有人可以說“停止”。這使得錯誤更有可能且更難糾正

3.不退出策略

• 如果經濟再平衡失敗怎麼辦？

• 如果技術自力更生來得不夠快怎麼辦？

• 沒有備用計劃，只有更深入的控制或更大的崩潰風險。

 那麼為什麼要繼續走呢？

 因為回頭意味著承認軟弱，招致政治反彈，並可能失去針對美國的戰略主動權。 在黨的眼中：前進是危險的，但倒退是致命的。

 底線
這是對的 -- 這不是一條安全或穩定的道路。這是一場高風險的賭博，成功帶來榮耀，失敗帶來混亂。問題不再僅僅在於中國是否有實力走下去，而是中國人民是否有耐心與領導層站在一起。
歷史表明當鋼絲斷裂時，它從來都不是優雅的。
 如此尖銳、深思熟慮的問題，不僅僅是政治分析，它們更是關於理解野心與現實、權力與人之間的真正緊張關係。
 

4th Slow Food International Congress

 4th Slow Food International Congress

05 Nov 2003 | English

 Mrs. and Mr. Brown Tseng

Slow Food will join together in Naples, with 600 delegates from 36 nations representing a body of roughly 80,000 members. Together with them are several members of the international jury for the Slow Food Award for the Defense of Biodiversity, 2003 Award Winners and ordinary Slow Food members.

The Naples Congress will leave its mark on our association insofar as it will set the seal on the eco-gastronomic commitment of Slow Food.
Slow Food as an international movement was born in far-off 1989 as a gastronomic association attentive to the quality of life as a whole, and opposed to the frantic efficiency imposed by the modern organization of society. But today’s gastronome also has to be an environmentalist: the disappearance of biodiversity, on a worldwide level, right before our eyes, is tragic also from the agro-industrial point of view. Since the beginning of the 1900s, the erosion of our genetic inheritance in terms of edible animal breeds, fruits and vegetables has claimed 80% of this biodiversity worldwide. The development model based on industrialization, mass urbanization (with consequent abandonment of the countryside), intensive farming methods, the heavy use of chemicals, the push for every greater quantity and lower prices, has created environmental health and cultural catastrophes that are sitting right under our eyes. The gourmets who limit themselves to celebrating folkloristic dishes and local recipes with a chauvinistic spirit and the chefs who busy themselves watching the television networks everyday lose sight of a fundamental element: raw ingredients.

Our traditional dishes are born from the need to use the agricultural and environmental resources that each area, with its particular climate and geography, can produce. Often the best dishes are created with the knowledgeable use of raw ingredients that are not highly valued.
Slow Food, since the mid-90s, has used cultural appreciation as a base to stop the pauperization of the Italian food heritage. Hence the Ark of Taste: this project involves researching, defining and cataloging all specialties—fruits, vegetables, animal breeds and artisan produced foods—at risk of disappearing. And hence, after that, the creation of the Slow Food Presidia project, aimed at saving each and every one of these treasures and making them known to the public. The Presidia have enjoyed phenomenal success in Italy, due partly to the Slow Food organization’s planning of grand events that have created media buzz—such as the Salone del Gusto—but also to the work of popularization and promotion undertaken by Slow Food Convivia leaders, the true backbone of the association. The Slow Food Presidia have made an economic difference, revitalizing entire productive microcircuits, and allowing small rural communities to rediscover pride in local products, hence a new identity and career opportunities for the next generation. These are no longer ‘niche’ products, solely for the wealthy and refined, but made by poor, naive farmers. No, they are concrete, modern examples to be followed for sustainable local development, from the agricultural and tourist point of view.

The Italian Presidia project has taught us that ancient knowledge can be revived in a modern world, the history of gastronomy that the identity of a people is constructed across an exchange of merchandise and ideas, but also of products from the land and recipes. Further afield, thanks to the efforts of governors and Convivium leaders round the world, the Ark of Taste project has ‘boarded’ products worth saving everywhere.
Our movement, structured as a nonprofit association, is concerned with social issues and is based largely on voluntary work. It has reacted to the challenge of globalization through interdependence and exchange. The international Presidia are already a reality, delving to the bottom of the tastes of far-off and diverse peoples and lands, local agricultural systems and crafts rooted in the culture and historical memory of people—a minority world compared to big industry, but infinitely important in safeguarding the environment and the destinies of world agriculture. Ours is no Utopia. It was a Utopia to think that by applying industrial techniques to agriculture it would be possible to solve the problems of hunger, profitability, the wholesomeness of food and the conservation of the environment. According to the Secretary General of the UNO, there is enough food to feed 12 billion people—almost double the world’s population—with 2,800 calories a day. But the soil land has been made arid by decades of plant protection products and chemical fertilizers.

Slow Food wishes to work for a new agriculture in harmony with the environment, capable of ensuring consumers not only security, but also the pleasure of savoring the taste of cultural belonging. To do this it takes effective tools and dedicated human and scientific resources. These are the reasons behind Slow Food’s major project to set up the world’s first University of Gastronomic Sciences in Pollenzo-Bra (Cuneo) and Colormo (Parma), the first courses at which will commence on October 4 2004. The University will be a place of universal gastronomic culture, where youngsters from the most diverse countries will be able to learn about the communication, production, marketing, history, anthropology and geography of food, a place in which, at last, gastronomy will become a subject for study alongside the traditional academic disciplines.

Slow Food would like the same consideration to be given to all those who devote themselves to the land, respecting its natural balance, fertility and vital energy. On Sunday November 9, the Slow Food Award for the Defense of Biodiversity will be presented at the Teatro San Carlo in Naples: this acknowledgment is reserved to all those who, with their daily labor, ensure the conservation of a piece of biodiversity in the world—people who live out of the limelight and are often unaware of the major political issues that decide their destinies, but are closely attached to the land, the ‘Great Earth Mother’.

The message that will emerge from this International Congress, the first of the third millennium is that: gastronomy cannot exist without clean, vital, flourishing agriculture. The land has to return to the center of the world food production process, rural communities have to rediscover identities and prospects. A new model of development is possible, and Slow Food plays a vital role in building it.

The Fourth Slow Food International Congress has been organized with the collaboration and support of the Campania Regional Authority, the City of Naples, the Chamber of Commerce of Naples, of Sanpaolo Banco di Napoli, and other bodies, institutions, and companies that believe in the Slow Food global project.

Valter Musso, Alessandra Abbona, Paola Nano
tel. 0172 419615/ 0172 419666/ 0172 419645 fax 0172 421293
email: v.musso@slowfood.it, s.abbona@slowfood.it, p.nano@slowfood.it